Star Wars VIII: The Last Jedi (2017) (spoilers free to be seen)

[Charles Castle]

The projection I read was $800M, which is ~16% less than Force Awakens.  Might sound steep, but Last Jedi's opening weekend was only 11% less, so TFA had clearly guaranteed TLJ an huge initial audience and ensured that it started from an advantageous position.

The target was more than attainable.  TLJ just had to be worth audiences' time.

Instead, it's shed viewers at a record pace and ended up down ~37% (even with the benefit of that inflated opening), unlikely to climb more than a few points higher.  And I will again point out that the real damage has yet to manifest: that of souring audience expectations, squandering the existing story, and setting up nothing for the next film . . . as opposed to the ample enthusiam and intrigue that TFA had so demonstrably served up to TLJ on a silver platter.

This is interesting trivia, or business, or both, it doesn't really have any bearing on the quality of the film. There are a huge amount of variables at play, and the numbers are off the charts large. There is not going to be a time in the near future when Disney will not see sinking a ton of resources in to Star Wars as an extremely good idea, and the sheer horror of not matching over-inflated projections and instead limboing all the way down to the fifth or sixth highest grossing film of all time isn't going to hasten it's demise in their eyes. A ton of people like and/or love this movie.

[Charles Castle]

The projection I read was $800M, which is ~16% less than Force Awakens.  Might sound steep, but Last Jedi's opening weekend was only 11% less, so TFA had clearly guaranteed TLJ an huge initial audience and ensured that it started from an advantageous position.

The target was more than attainable.  TLJ just had to be worth audiences' time.

Instead, it's shed viewers at a record pace and ended up down ~37% (even with the benefit of that inflated opening), unlikely to climb more than a few points higher.  And I will again point out that the real damage has yet to manifest: that of souring audience expectations, squandering the existing story, and setting up nothing for the next film . . . as opposed to the ample enthusiam and intrigue that TFA had so demonstrably served up to TLJ on a silver platter.

Well, I can't find that number googling. I'm not sure why you think that number was 'more than attainable' when it is the second highest grossing Star Wars film of all time. It has exceeded the take of all but one Star Wars film, which had the advantage of being the first new one in a long time as well as zero competition in the box office. Here's Forbes saying it was going to be a tough fight before the film released.

Traditionally December releases don't do as well as these Star Wars movies have done - even what are considered the biggest December releases before these were about half as successful.

And it's the 10th highest grossing film of all time.

Haters can continue to try to paint this as a failure, but again, if those are troubles, I wish they were mine.

Weird. I was right in the middle of typing almost the exact same thought.

I'm just going to run along and get our wicker man, then.

[kunedog]

Yes, opportunity cost is part of the business side.  But it's not trivial.

And it's true that sometimes box profit/revenue isn't indicative of quality.  For the sake of argument, suppose Blade Runner 2049 is the finest Blade Runner sequel possible.  Despite that, it's still doomed to financial failure if you spent a couple hundred million on it when there don't exist (and never did exist, even in 1982) enough Blade Runner fans for it earn that back.

But as we saw, The Last Jedi was granted an enormous audience of enthusiastic (and proven to exist) Star Wars fans who, upon actually seeing the thing, promptly vacated its theaters like never before.  IMO that speaks to quality.

[Edward J Grug III]

I don't think you're the Hollywood business expert you think you are.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/01/21/box-office-star-wars-the-last-jedi-zooms-past-600m-in-37-days/#4143616f241f

Of note, there are plenty of $150 million+ openers (The Dark Knight Rises, Avengers: Age of Ultron, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, etc.) that were less leggy than The Last Jedi. Heck, among 16 $150m+ openers, it is the sixth-leggiest, behind the last two Star Wars movies, The Avengers, Jurassic World and The Dark Knight.

this result shouldn't be that much of a surprise, especially when you throw in a 2.5-hour running time and a less overtly escapist narrative. It will have fallen 33% from The Force Awakens, which is slightly higher than the norm (minus 30-32%) for Star Wars second chapters and will have a record for the biggest raw grosses sequel drop, which frankly makes sense when your first film made $937 million in North America alone. Again, chalk it up to Jumanji and a more frontloaded theatrical environment, but any alleged brand damage won't be diagnosed until Episode IX opens in two years.

[kunedog]

"Zooms" . . . that's rich.

any alleged brand damage won't be diagnosed until Episode IX opens in two years.

Much agreed on this point.  I'd feel sorry for the directors of Episodes 9+ if they were literally anyone else (i.e. anyone new).  But JJ can call on his Force Awakens credibility and Rian . . . well, (except for the loss of Fisher) it's all his mess anyway.

[Edward J Grug III]

"Zooms" . . . that's rich.

That puts it sixth on the all-time domestic grossers list

"Yeah, but it took six weeks to earn more than all but five other films in history. Talk about slow."

[The Lurker]

"mess"

[goflyblind]

burn it all and salt the ashes!

[kunedog]

Easy, dude.  That was a crack at Forbes, not your precious Last Jedi.  I'd argue Force Awakens is the only flick (maybe Avatar too, I dunno) that "zoomed" past $600M, earning eight figures that day.  The others were petering out in the last 10% or so of their totals.

[Edward J Grug III]

Earning $600M in only 6 weeks seems to be fairly described as zooming though.

[RVR II]

Earning $600M in only 6 weeks seems to be fairly described as zooming though.

In other words, the Force was Strong with this one

[kunedog]

Earning $600M in only 6 weeks seems to be fairly described as zooming though.

Fair to say.

Would that you had written the Forbes headline instead, referring to the (very) early TFA- and critic-influenced stages of TLJ's box office run.

In other words, the Force was Strong with this one

Indeed it was . . . right up until audiences saw it for themselves, and (unfiltered) word got out.  But we've been over this.

[Charles Castle]

In other words, the Force was Strong with this one

Indeed it was . . . right up until audiences saw it for themselves, and (unfiltered) word got out.  But we've been over this.

Right, because since that first weekend, which was gifted to it by the success of The Force Awakens making the world feel an interest in Star Wars, it's limped along to $384 million domestic, which would only be good enough for 30th all-time.

But as we saw, The Last Jedi was granted an enormous audience of enthusiastic (and proven to exist) Star Wars fans who, upon actually seeing the thing, promptly vacated its theaters like never before.  IMO that speaks to quality.

Captain America: Civil War dropped 59% in the second weekend with it's primary competition being the live action remake of The Jungle Book. Avengers: Age of Ultron dropped 59% in the second weekend with stiff competition from something called Hot Pursuit. The Last Jedi dropped 67% on it's second weekend, except, when you add Christmas day it's 4 day total only dropped 55% going up against competition from Jumanji and Pitch Perfect 3, both of which made more money on those weekends than any film set against Captain America: Civil War or Avengers: Age of Ultron. It's length has reduced the amount of showings theaters have been able to schedule, and yet it's made almost as much money as both of those films (Captain America: Civil War & Avengers: Age of Ultron) even if you subtract it's opening weekend.

Maybe you should just focus on deconstructing the merits of the film itself as you see them, because this over-analysis of the numbers to attempt to lend weight to your opinion of the film is a crashing failure.

[Cyrusso]

Not to mention Box Office numbers are not the least bit indicative of the quality of a piece of work. I'll give you two good examples, Titanic and Avatar, two of the highest grossing films of all time. Now... go to the IMDB's top 250 films and see if either of those films are anywhere on that list.

[Imrahil]

Not to mention Box Office numbers are not the least bit indicative of the quality of a piece of work.

But they're something people keep bringing up in the defense of the film as if it were.