THE... OFFICIAL 2015 NFL SEASON Thread

[RVR II]

Harvard student's model picks Dolphins, Seahawks

NFL.com
    Published: July 22, 2015 at 04:25 p.m.
    Updated: July 23, 2015 at 09:22 a.m.

As the NFL's 32 clubs prepare to hit the dog days of training camp, a Harvard undergraduate has entered the prognostication game with a new mathematical model that predicts some surprises in next season's race for the playoffs.

If you ask Kurt Bullard of the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, the Patriots' reign in the AFC East may be coming to an end. The Dolphins, who added Ndamukong Suh this offseason, rank third in Bullard's final table --two spots ahead of the Patriots -- with a 77 percent chance to make the playoffs, to New England's 62 percent odds. (He stays out of predicting the fate of Brady, who is currently suspended for the team's first four games.)


Bullard also has an interesting prediction for Western New York. After an offseason of record season ticket sales, the Bills come in with just a 40 percent chance to make the playoffs in the Bullard model, and he writes that "the much touted Bills revamping...may not have the desired effect." Buffalo has added LeSean McCoy, as well as the bombastic, high-flying Rex Ryan.

In explaining his approach (in much more detail here), Bullard writes that he's looking for "a more quantitative method [to predicting the NFL season] than the likes of Trent Dilfer." Shade aside, though, many of Bullard's other predictions mirror the expert zeitgeist. Seattle and Green Bay top the rankings, and New England and Denver are comfortably in the top ten. The Raiders, predictably, are last (with a one percent shot at the playoffs), joined near the bottom by Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.

Turning his gaze to California, Bullard gives the 49ers just a 10 percent shot at the playoffs and highlights an exodus of talent from Santa Clara.

The skinny on Bullard's model: he worked with Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value statistic as well as depth chart information to try and quantify team strength and depth across position groups. He then ran schedule simulations and calculated playoff odds.

We, like you, are desperate for some real football. In the meantime, data is all we have.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/07/a-way-too-early-prediction-of-the-nfl-season/

[RVR II]

YYYYEEEESSSS!!!!

NFL upholds Patriots QB Tom Brady's four-game suspension

AP
JUL 28, 2015 2:35p ET


NEW YORK (AP) Tom Brady's four-game suspension for his role in using underinflated footballs during the AFC championship game last season has been upheld by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

The league announced the decision Tuesday.

The New England Patriots' star quarterback was suspended by NFL executive Troy Vincent in May following a league-sanctioned investigation by Ted Wells. The Patriots were fined $1 million and docked a pair of draft picks. The team didn't appeal its penalty, but Brady and his lawyers made their case during a 10-hour appeal hearing on June 23.

The NFL Players Association has previously said it would challenge the decision in court if Brady's suspension wasn't erased.

Brady and the Patriots have denied knowingly using deflated footballs in the AFC title game win over Indianapolis. The Patriots went on to beat Seattle in the Super Bowl and Brady was the MVP.

The NFL announced in late January that Wells would head an investigation into New England's use of underinflated balls in a 45-7 win over the Colts on Jan. 18. More than three months later, the 243-page Wells report was issued, saying it was ''more probable than not'' that Brady was ''at least generally aware'' that footballs he used were improperly deflated by team personnel.

Five days after that, on May 11, the NFL suspended Brady four games, fined the Patriots and stripped the two draft picks. Patriots owner Robert Kraft accepted the team penalties.

But Brady appealed and his hearing was held before Goodell six weeks later. The union had asked Goodell to recuse himself from hearing the appeal because he could not be impartial and might be called as a witness. But Goodell said it was his responsibility to oversee the hearing to protect the integrity of the league.

Scientific arguments were a major part of Brady's defense. Brady's lawyers tried to shoot down the findings of an independent firm hired to provide scientific analysis of the air pressure inside the footballs used by the Patriots and Colts.

Brady, who turns 38 on Aug. 3, took nearly every snap last season. But he'll miss the first four games this season unless the case goes to court. Jimmy Garoppolo, a second-round pick in 2014, would replace Brady, the two-time NFL MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP.

New England hosts Pittsburgh on Sept. 10 to open the regular season. It then goes to Buffalo, hosts Jacksonville, has a bye, and is at Dallas in the last game of Brady's suspension.

[anais.butterfly]

 

[RVR II]

My Bills had Better Had win Week 2

[RVR II]

Rex Ryan: Bills considered signing QB Michael Vick

24/7Sports
29 minutes ago


The Bills are desperate for any help they can get at quarterback.

It has been a rough start to training camp for EJ Manuel, Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor, who are in a three-horse race for the starting job. Would veteran QB Michael Vick, a free agent, be a better option? Well, Buffalo considered Vick and decided against it because of concerns about how the dual-threat passer would hold up in Buffalo's unforgiving fall and winter weather.

"I had a conversation with Mike," Bills coach Rex Ryan said on "PFT Live," via Pro Football Talk. "Mike's an outstanding athlete, he's a tremendous person. I really enjoyed my year with Mike, and he's great for a team. However, our conditions are a little different than most teams in this league. And Mike will tell you, he's not built really for a bad weather quarterback. He doesn't have great big hands, and the weather affects him some. And he'd be the first one to tell you.

"You get the wind that we're gonna have in our stadium and the snow and all that stuff, that's not in his best interests. And quite honestly, I considered it. We considered it. And I know that's not the spot for him."


Vick played under Ryan with the Jets in 2014. He completed only 52.9 percent of his passes for 604 yards with three TD passes. He rushed for another 153 yards on 26 carries.

They better not sign him

[RVR II]

So it's half time of the Hall of Fame game
Glad to see football is officially underway (even if it is preseason)

[RVR II]

Wow! Another surprise from ol Smitty

Baltimore Ravens receiver Steve Smith to retire after the season

11 minutes ago

USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Steve Smith has decided that 15 NFL seasons will be enough.

Smith, 36, announced on Monday that he will retire after 2015 season.


Smith entered the league in 2001 as a third-round draft pick out of Utah by the Carolina Panthers. Smith played 13 seasons with the Panthers, including five Pro Bowl appearances, before joining the Ravens in 2014. Smith enters the season 14th on the NFL's all-time receiving list with 13,262 yards, 18th in receptions with 915, 33rd in receiving touchdowns with 73, and 10th in all-purpose yards with 17,679. Smith had 1,065 yards on 79 catches with six touchdowns for the Ravens in 2014.

[RVR II]

Holy Crap!

Geno Smith "sucker punched" in Jets' locker room, out 6-10 weeks

August 11, 2015, 1:31 PM EDT
AP

Jets quarterback Geno Smith has been injured in a fight in the team's locker room and will likely miss the start of the regular season.

In a stunning announcement today, Jets coach Todd Bowles said that Smith suffered a broken jaw when he was "sucker punched" by Jets linebacker IK Enemkpali. The Jets have cut Enemkpali as a result.

Smith is expected to miss 6-10 weeks. The Jets' opener is less than five weeks away, so Smith will almost certainly miss some time to start the regular season.

Training camp fights are common, but those fights are usually on the practice field, when players are in full pads. For a player to seriously injure a teammate in the locker room is very rare. And for a player to seriously injure his team's starting quarterback is completely shocking.

For Smith and the Jets, it's a major setback. And it's a story that will raise serious questions around the NFL, about whether the league needs to crack down harder on fights between teammates.

[RVR II]

WTF

Report: Rex Ryan's Bills claim former Jets LB IK Enemkpali

17 minutes ago
Buffalo Newsletter

Rex Ryan might be trolling his former team.

The Bills claimed linebacker IK Enemkpali on Tuesday, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. This comes one day after the Jets released Enemkpali for punching quarterback Geno Smith and breaking his jaw during a locker room argument. So the ex-Jets coach figured this was a good time to scoop him up.

New York drafted Enemkpali in the sixth round of the 2014 draft when Ryan was still the head coach. The Louisiana Tech alum had only three tackles and two passes defended over six games last fall. Apparently Buffalo saw something it liked in the young linebacker, fully aware of how this move would be perceived publicly. Rapoport says Enemkpali told the Bills his side of the story before they claimed him.


Buffalo is pretty set at linebacker, and there's a good chance Enemkpali does not make the 53-man roster. But this is still quite the twist to an already unbelievable story.

Ryan said he wanted to "build a bully" in Buffalo. It appears he's doing just that.

[RVR II]

Really enjoying the Panthers @ Bills Pre-Season game tonight
Lots of great plays on both sides as well as bumbled plays.
I think both teams have potential to do well this season and.. dare I say, maybe they'll see each other again in the Super Bowl (I can dream)

[MartyS (Gromit)]

So, the stadium erupted into a massive cheer when Tebow got into the game today.

I switched to the Phillies game at that point.

Didn't get back to the Eagles coverage until driving home listening to the post game show, sounds like he didn't do too well.

[RVR II]

T-bone's like lighting a match..
He's a flair when he's first lit, then poof he's out and the smoke fades away

[RVR II]

Wow.. Really

Michael Vick signs one-year deal with Steelers

NFL
    Published: Aug. 25, 2015 at 07:45 p.m.
    Updated: Aug. 25, 2015 at 08:01 p.m.

The waiting game is over for Michael Vick.

The Pittsburgh Steelers announced Tuesday night that they have signed the veteran quarterback to a one-year contract. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. In a corresponding move, the Steelers have placed quarterback Bruce Gradkowski on season-ending injured reserve.

Vick signs with the Steelers on the same day he visited with the team. The 35-year-old veteran spent last season with the New York Jets, where he played sparingly behind starter Geno Smith.

"There's not a throw on the field he can't make from an arm-strength-standpoint, he's a very experienced guy at what he does at this point in his career," said Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "And obviously the mobility is still unique even at 35."

This is a much better situation for Vick, who won't encounter any of the drama he faced playing under the spotlight in Gotham. Ben Roethlisberger is the clear-cut starter, and Vick should have the time to get comfortable in a new offense. This isn't the first time the Steelers have flirted with Vick: The team expressed interest in the quarterback after Vick's release from prison in 2009.

Earlier Tuesday, Roethlisberger threw his support behind the move.

"For me, it's about any way, any person, any thing who can help this team," Roethlisberger said. "If that's Michael Vick, then so be it."

Vick came on Pittsburgh's radar after Gradkowski suffered hand and shoulder injuries against the Packers on Sunday. Gradkowski underwent finger surgery on Tuesday, according to the Post-Gazette.

[RVR II]

And the petition to get rig of Vick is on the move..
http://mweb.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25281382/petition-to-get-michael-vick-off-the-steelers-already-has-15k-signatures

[MartyS (Gromit)]

How stupid is it that an animal rescue group canceled it's event at the stadium in October because of Vick? 
Use the event as a protest and get more people involved, but don't cancel it.

Unfortunately too many rescue organizations are like that, filled with people more interested in making themselves feel better than actually helping animals.  A few times I've heard stories of people that went to adopt a dog from a private rescue and got rejected because of some crazy rule they had, and then a month later the people got the same dog from the town shelter because the private places that say they don't put any animals down avoid it by giving them back to the town and let it happen there.

Back to football, Sam Bradford looked really sharp tonight, so if he can stay healthy things look pretty good for the Eagles.